Weekly Market Insight: November Week 5

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Market Updates

25 Nov 2024

Headline News

- Bitcoin price surged by 9% last week, coming within $400 of the critical $100,000 milestone. The rally was potentially fueled by the launch of IBIT options trading, which helps bolstering liquidity, and the announcement that Gary Gensler will step down as SEC Chair on January 20, 2025, sparking optimism about potential regulatory shifts.
- Blackrock Bitcoin ETF, IBIT, began its options trading on Nasdaq with the first day total notional volume of $1.9 billion via 289K call options compared to 65K put options. Cboe also announced the launching of cash-settled Bitcoin ETF options soon.

Macro-Outlook

- This week will be a shortened trading week for the U.S. markets, closing on Thursday for Thanksgiving and early at 1 PM on Friday for Black Friday.
- Market sentiment has shifted slightly, with the probability of a 25bps rate cut in December decreasing to 50.9%, down from 61.9% a week ago. Additionally, expectations for the Fed's policy path suggest a 51.7% probability of just three rate cuts (totaling 75bps) from now through the end of 2025.

Upcoming Economic Calendar including,

- Wednesday, November 27, 3:00am: FOMC Minutes
- Wednesday, November 27, 9:30pm: U.S. Core PCE Price Index in October, Durable Goods Orders in October, 2nd Estimation of Q3 GDP, Personal Income and Spending in October

Weekly-Cryptos-Overview

- The Trump administration is reportedly planning to establish a cryptocurrency advisory committee to drive crypto legislation, coordinate multi-agency regulations, and implement a bitcoin reserve strategy.
- Trump Media & Technology Group is reportedly in talks about buying Bakkt, a crypto-centralised exchange. The company also filed a trademark application for "TruthFi", a platform intended to support crypto payments, custody, and digital asset trading.
- MicroStrategy acquired another 51,780 BTC and completed a $3 billion offering of convertible senior notes due 2029 at 0% coupon and 55% conversion premium.
- Bitwise registered a spot Solana ETF in Delaware.
- Binance introduced BFUSD with 19.5% APY yield. The new yield-bearing asset is able to be used as collateral for their leveraged trades and each user is subjected to a limited quote based on VIP levels. Coinbase announced a 4.7% APY on users' USDC on Coinbase Wallet.
- Tether also launched Hadron, a tokenization platform for a wide range of real-world assets including bonds, commodities, stocks, other stablecoins and loyalty points.
- Tether minted another 5 billion USDT last week. At the same time, Ethena USDe supply increased approximately 700 million, representing a 20% weekly increase in the USDe supply and an all-time-high supply.

Layer 1 and Layer 2s

- Astar Network announced Astar Evolution 1.5, enabling ASTR to OP Superchains and Soneium dApps integration.
- IOTA announced IOTA Rebased, upgrading to parallelize MoveVM and EVM mainnet.
- Taiko launched Multi-Proofs on the mainnet, implementing multiple ZK proofs powered by RiscZero and Succinct.
- Startnet introduced Startnet v0.13.3, enabling 5x cheaper blob gas.
- Mode launched the AI Agent App Store, a hub for discovering and using AI agents in DeFi.

Dapps

- Sky Protocol announced an increase of Sky Saving Rate to 8.5%.
- Ethena announced partnership with Deribit to bring USDe into the platform as derivatives margin collateral while earning rewards.
- Elixir introduced the deUSD RWA Institutional Program, a partnership with Securitize to allow BUIDL and other RWA holders to seamlessly access DeFi using deUSD.
- dYdX launched MegaVault, providing liquidity to various markets and earn yield from PnL on vault positions, trading fee revenue shares, and other potential incentives.
- Injective officially launched iAgent, SDK for developers to create their own on-chain AI agent.
- INFINIT introduced INFINIT Launcher, enabling token launch with AI agents in minutes.
- TARS AI, the AI architecture protocol on Solana, announced the team has officially joined the NVIDIA Developer Program, unlocking access to 150 advanced SDKs to supercharge development.
- Blendy, the memecoins money market, testnet is now live.
- ORA Foundation introduced ORA token with 333,333,333 total supply and intended to be used for Initial Model Offering (IMO) access, node staking and governance. The foundation plans to launch the token via DAICO, a fundraising model introduced by Vitalik in 2018, giving token holders the ability to release the raised fund to the team by stages.
- YOM, a cloud gaming DePIN protocol, and aZEN, a decentralised computing protocol, both announced migration from Solana to Peaq Network.
- Morpho Labs's MORPHO token is now live with approximately $700 million FDV and its TVL hit all-time-high of $3.4 billion according to DeFiLlama.
- McDonald partnered with Doodles and launched 110 million coffee cups across the U.S.

Upcoming Alpha and Governance

- Starknet's STRK staking is expected to be live on the mainnet this week.
- Zircuit, Ethereum Layer-2, is expected to enable its ZRC token transferability on November 25.
- Jupiter will be conducting the first Jupuary vote from November 25th to 29th, proposing 2 additional Jupuaries airdrop of 700 million JUP (51.85% of current circulating supply) each with no lockup period.
- Avalanche is expected to release the Fuji9000 upgrade on November 25. Fuji9000 is the last upgrade before Avalanche9000 upgrade.
- Chromia is expected to launch the Asgrad upgrade on December 3, introducing Chromia Extensions which is designed to expand the Chromia modular framework.
- Magic Eden, the dominant NFT marketplace on Solana and Bitcoin, plans to launch its ME token on December 10.
- Jito proposed to allow JTO staking in the Node Consensus Network (NCN) and shares 15bps of Jito Tips via TipRouter to JTO stakers.
- Aave proposed purchasing $4 million worth of INST token to establish a friendly collaboration with Instadapp. INST surged approximately 20% on the same day with approximately $463 million FDV.
- Monad is reportedly releasing its public testnet in phases.

Token Unlock

- GRASS token unlocked on November 28th, amount representing 1.52% of the token supply.
- IMX token unlocked on November 29th, amount representing 1.46% of the token supply.
- OP token unlocked on November 30th, amount representing 2.56% of the token supply.
- TAI token unlocked on December 2nd, amount representing 6.5% of the token supply.
- SUI token unlocked on December 3rd, amount representing 2.87% of the token supply.
- JTO token unlocked on December 7th, amount representing 103.9% of the token supply.
- IO token unlocked on December 11th, amount representing 2.88% of the token supply.
- APT token unlocked on December 12th, amount representing 2.11% of the token supply.

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