Weekly Market Insight: May week 3

English

Market Updates

14 May 2024

Headline News

- Bitcoin continued to show weakness in price momentum and lacked positive catalyst except AI-related tokens which rallied last week due to excitement of OpenAI's upcoming new announcement.
- Bitcoin price decreased by 3.66% on Friday after US Michigan consumer sentiment in May fell from 77.2 to 67.4, below market expectation of 76. Inflation expectations for the year-ahead increased from 3.2% to 3.5%, expressed increasing concern for stagflation.

Macro-Outlook

- The probability of the rate remains unchanged in the June FOMC meeting is at 96.5%. Meanwhile, market expectation of 50bps rate-cut has decreased from 61.8% to 54.6% in a week.
- The US initial jobless claims ending May 4th surged from 209,000 to 231,000, above market expectation of 210,000. Indicate further weakness in the labor market.
- This Wednesday's US inflation rate data is expected to have a high impact on the expectation of the timeline on first rate-cut in 2024.

Upcoming Economic Calendar including,

- Tuesday, May 14th 8:30pm: US PPI in April
- Tuesday, May 14th 10:00pm: Jerome Powell speech at the annual general meeting of Foreign Bankers' Association in Amsterdam.
- Wednesday, May 15th 8:30pm: US inflation rate and retail sales in April
- Monday, May 20th 3:30am: Jerome Powell speech at the Georgetown Law Commencement Ceremony in Washington DC.

Weekly-Cryptos-Overview

- US DOJ has selected Forensic Risk Alliance (FRA) as Binance's external regulator to ensure its compliance with the plea agreement and access to company's internal records.
- Blackrock's BUIDL tokenized fund partner Securitize proposed to apply as Arbitrum STEP program RWA Treasury bill service provider.
- Build on Bitcoin, BOB, EVM-compatible Bitcoin Layer-2 mainnet is live.
- Ethereum SVM rollup, Eclipse's founder Neel Somani was accused of sexual harassment.
- Friendtech announced to return 2/3 of protocol fees from Club Key swaps back to users.
- Layer3, a social protocol, introduced its governance token L3 and planned to distribute 5% of the total supply in early summer as the initial airdrop. 51% of total supply will be allocated to community allocation.
- Ethena USDe will be integrated into Bybit as collateral asset for perpetual trading, zero-fees for BTC and ETH spot trading pairs as well as the Earn platform for yield farming.
- Gearbox introduced Friendly Leverage, reducing the risk of liquidation via fundamental oracles by Redstone Oracle, which measures the price of given LRT based on its underlying staked ETH instead of market price.
- Lyra Finance introduced liquid tokenized covered calls of LRT (rswETH and eETH), introducing additional yield-bearing from the derivatives strategies to token holders.
- GMX announced to integrate V2 to Solana.
- Render's OctaneX was featured in the Apply 2024 iPad Pro keynote.
- Gamestarter introduced the launch of GameChain, Layer-1 powered by Avalanche.
- Eternal AI, decentralised AI protocol powered by BVM, integrated storage of their AI models with AIOZ nodes.
- Zero1 Labs, a PoS Layer-1 for decentralised AI ecosystems, announced its integration with Aethir decentralized cloud infrastructure.
- Morpheus, an open network for smart AI agents, has its MOR token launched on Arbitrum.

Upcoming Alpha: Token Unlock, Governance

- OpenAI will have a live stream event on May 13th to demo updates on ChatGPT and GPT4.
- BounceBit, BB is expected to launch on May 13th and listed in Binance.
- Synthetix's front end, Infinex, is expected to launch on May 13th.
- Mode, Ethereum rollup, launched its token. Staking V2 is expected to launch this week.
- Liquity v2 whitepaper is expected to be released this week, featuring hair-cut-free redemption, user-set rates and new yield opportunity.
- Deso's Revolution Proof of Stake upgrade is successful on testnet, featuring high scalability, burn-maximizing and permissionless validators. Mainnet is expected by late May or early June.
- STRK token unlocked on May 15th, amount representing 8.79% of the token supply.
- CYBER token unlocked on May 15th, amount representing 5.98% of the token supply.
- AEVO token (including tokens from private sales, team, DAO treasury and RBN token conversion) unlocked on May 15th, amount representing 758% of the token supply.
- ARB token unlocked on May 16th, amount representing 3.49% of the token supply.
- APE token unlocked on May 17th, amount representing 2.48% of the token supply.
- IMX token unlocked on May 17th, amount representing 1.75% of the token supply.
- PYTH token unlocked on May 20th, amount representing 141.67% of the token supply.
- AVAX token unlocked on May 22nd, amount representing 2.5% of the token supply.

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