Weekly Market Insight: October Week 2

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Market Updates

07 Oct 2024

Headline News

- The Bitcoin price retraced by 4.26% last week and Bitcoin spot ETFs experienced a weekly net outflow of $301.54 million, which the majority of the outflow occurred last Tuesday, resulted from highly uncertain geographical tension as Israel was struck by Iran's missile attack. Meanwhile, the Ethereum spot ETFs experienced net outflow of $30.69 million last week.
- If the FTX reorganization plan hearing on Tuesday was approved by court, creditors with claims of less than $50,000 may begin to receive compensation by the end of 2024.

Macro-Outlook

- The Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated the Fed is expected to have another 2 rate cuts in 2024, totalling 50bps at the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) Annual Meeting last Tuesday.
- Japan’s new prime minister, Shigeru Ishiba, said the economy isn’t ready for another rate hike.
- The U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI in September was 47.2, slightly below market expectation of 47.5. On the other hand, the U.S. ISM services PMI in September was 54.9, much higher than the market estimation of 51.7.
- The U.S. labour market remained resilient in September. The unemployment rate dropped for the third consecutive month, fell to 4.1%, lower than market expectation of 4.2%. The non-farm payrolls increased 254K in September, the strongest job growth in six months, much higher than the market estimation of 140K. The market reduced the probability of a 50bps cut in November from 57% to 0% in a week, after evaluating the current labour market and the previous speech made by Jerome Powell. The probability of a 50bps cut in December also dropped to 17.1%.

Upcoming Economic Calendar including,

- Thursday, October 10, 2:00am: FOMC Minutes
- Thursday, October 10, 8:30pm: U.S. Inflation Rate in September
- Friday, October 11, 10:00pm: The University of Michigan Preliminary Consumer Sentiment in October

Weekly-Cryptos-Overview

- Bitwise filed for a spot Ripple XRP ETF application with SEC.
- Grayscale Decentralised AI Fund is now open to eligible accredited investors. The fund holdings consist of NEAR, RNDR, FIL, LPT and TAO. Grayscale also launched a new single-asset Grayscale Aave Trust via private placement.
- BBVA, a Spanish multinational financial services company, plans to launch stablecoin with Visa in 2025.
- Bithumb, one of the major South Korean crypto exchanges, was reportedly considering listing on the U.S. Nasdaq.
- SWIFT announced institutions worldwide will begin piloting digital assets transactions on its network starting next year.

Layer 1 and Layer 2s

- EigenLayer unlocked its EIGEN token, users are able to trade, transfer and stake now.
- Sui launched its official Sui Bridge on the mainnet, enabling trust minimised cross-chain transfer powered by Sui's validators. The bridge currently supports ETH and WETH transfers between Sui and Ethereum.
- Automata Network, a multi-prover network for machine attestation, announced the launch of OP Stack Layer 2 using AltLayer rollup service and EigenLayer for its Data Availability.
- Binance Labs announced undisclosed investment in Sophon, a ZKsync elastic chain that features native account abstraction and gasless experience. The chain aims to become a platform for high-throughput applications such as SocialFi, GameFi, Prediction market, AI and more. The team is expected to launch its mainnet and SOPH token in the upcoming weeks.
- GnosisDAO announced Full Stack Decentralisation as part of its Gnosis 3.0 roadmap, introducing Gnosis Studios, Gnosis Labs, Gnosis Chain, Gnosis Spinouts and Gnosis VC.
- Franklin Templeton's tokenised money market fund, Benji Investment platform, is now live on Aptos.

Dapps

- Covalent's EWM Light Client Testnet is now live, securing Ethereum historical blockchain data and enhancing decentralisation with 10% to 25% APY.
- Axelar Network introduced the Mobius Development Stack (MDS) open tools, enabling self-service connections across multiple Layer-1s, programmable Axelar Virtual Machine (AVM) and more.
- Ethereal, a spot and perpetual DEX using USDe, proposed to allocate 15% of its token supply to ENA stakers and integrated into Ethena's hedging engine.
- Polymarket launched prediction markets on military actions in the Middle East. The launch raised controversial ethical discussion in the community, but Vitalik defended Polymarket stating the markets are a more accurate news source.
- Ethervista has introduced its new Vista staking program, enabling users to stake Vista tokens and earn one-third of the platform's trading fees, in addition to enhanced fee rewards.
- Kin Capital launched a $100 million tokenised real estate debt fund on Chintai network, a RWA blockchain licensed by MAS Singapore, which offers 14% to 15% projected return annually.
- World Liberty Finance whitelists are now open for accredited U.S. and non-U.S. investors.
- Puffer Finance launched UniFi AVS, a near instant transaction finality powered by EigenLayer restaking with based rollup design.
- Clearpool announced ozUSD, a yield-bearing rebasing stablecoin.
- Resolv integrated Hyperliquid into their delta-neutral strategy.
- CryptoKitties launched a Telegram game, All The Zen.

Upcoming Alpha and Governance

- HBO is scheduled to air "Money Electric: The Bitcoin Mystery" on October 8, claiming to have discovered the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto. The market predicts a 40.5% chance Len Sassaman will be identified as Satoshi by HBO.
- Stacks is expected to undergo Nakamoto hard fork upgrade on October 10.
- Avalanche is expected to hold Avalanche Summit LATAM from October 16th to 18th. Avalanche9000 testnet is expected to launch during the event.
- The FTX estate is expected to auction 22.3 million locked WLD at discount. The locked tokens are subjected to separated daily unlock throughout 2028.
- Mantra is expected to launch its mainnet in October. The team released a tokenomics update including approximately 65% circulating supply at mainnet TGE, vesting schedule for airdrop amount, totaling 1.77 billion OM supply at TGE.
- Initia introduced the Interwoven Stack, the engine of its enshrines rollups, enabling optimistic bridge, state-sync rollbacks using Celestia, enshrined oracle, enshrined indexer and a bridge hook. Initia also raised $14 million in series A and $2.5 million in Community Round. The mainnet launch is expected in October.
- MagicEden will conduct its token claim test for its token ME in October.
- Fractal Bitcoin plans to implement Runes and CAT20 (token standard based on OP_CAT) on its network in October, according to the latest released roadmap.
- Injective announced phrase 1 of INJ 3.0 which passed earlier this year, reducing the minimum and maximum inflation to 4.75% and 9.25% respectively.

Token Unlock

- CFX token unlocked on October 9th, amount representing 1.93% of the token supply.
- IO token unlocked on October 12th, amount representing 1.12% of the token supply.
- APT token unlocked on October 13th, amount representing 2.26% of the token supply.
- STRK token unlocked on October 15th, amount representing 3.29% of the token supply.
- CYBER token unlocked on October 15th, amount representing 3.1% of the token supply.
- ARB token unlocked on October 16th, amount representing 2.56% of the token supply.
- APE token unlocked on October 17th, amount representing 2.28% of the token supply.
- MERL token unlocked on October 19th, amount representing 5.8% of the token supply.
- WELL token unlocked on October 23rd, amount representing 1.3% of the token supply.
- RON token unlocked on October 27th, amount representing 9.89% of the token supply.
- TIA token unlocked on October 30th, amount representing 82% of the token supply.

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