Weekly Market Insight: May Week 2

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Market Updates

05 May 2025

Headline News

Bitcoin rose by 0.65% last week, closely tracking the U.S. stock market, though price action remained relatively subdued ahead of this week’s FOMC meeting. The market estimates 96.2% probability that the Fed will keep the rate unchanged in the FOMC this Thursday.

Macro-Outlook

The US Treasury announced new refunding auctions of $125 billion, in line with the market estimation. The US Treasury department also stated to keep the auction sizes steady for "at least" the next several quarters.
The US Q1 advances GDP fell by an annualised rate of -0.3%, well below market expectations of 0.3% growth. The slowdown was contributed by the 41.3% surge in imports, cooling consumer spending and lower federal government expenditures.
The US core PCE price index was unchanged in March, below the market forecast of 0.1% gain. Personal income increased by 0.5% in March, slightly higher than market expectation of 0.4%. While personal spending increased by 0.7% in March, higher than market expectation of 0.5%.
The US ISM manufacturing PMI fell to 48.7, higher than the market forecast of 48.
The job openings in the US fell to 7.192 million in March, the lowest in 6 months and below market expectations of 7.48 million. The US non-farm payrolls increased 177K in April, higher than the market estimation of 130K. Meanwhile, April unemployment rate was at 4.2%, the same as in March and in line with market expectations.

Upcoming Economic Calendar including,

Monday, May 5, 10:00pm: The US ISM Services PMI in April
Thursday, May 8, 2:00am: FOMC meeting

Weekly-Cryptos-Overview

BlackRock filed with the SEC to create digital shares (DLT Shares) mirroring record of share ownership for its $150 billion Treasury Trust Fund.
The Crypto Council for Innovation, joined by over 30 organizations, including a16z, Paradigm, and Kraken, has submitted a letter to the SEC advocating for crypto staking to be treated as a technical process, not as a securities transaction.
Solana, SuperState and Orca submitted Project Open proposal to SEC for a pilot project to enable the issuance and trading of equity securities on Solana.
Arizona Bitcoin Reserve Bill SB1373 and SB1025 have passed the House. SB1373 is currently pending Senate Democrats to accept the House's amendments, while SB1025 has been vetoed by Governor Katie Hobbs, citing digital assets as "untested investments" in public asset management.
Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund ADQ, IGC and First Abu Dhabi Bank are reportedly planning to launch a regulated Dirham-backed stablecoin.
Mastercard announced a global stablecoin payment system, covering wallet enablement, card issuance, merchant settlement and on-chain remittances.
Visa partnered with Bridge to enable developers to offer stablecoin-backed Visa cards across Argentina, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, Peru, and Chile.
Freight Technologies announced raising $20 million through convertible notes, with proceeds will be used to acquire the TRUMP token.

Layer 1 and Layer 2s

Ethereum R1 was introduced as the neutral Ethereum rollup with no token, no private sales and no governance cult. The rollup will be 100% funded by donation and 1% base fee goes to Taiko DAO until 2030.
Scroll is now a Stage 1 zk-Rollup with Euclid upgrade. Users will have buffer time to exit before any undesirable upgrade implemented, submitting transactions through Ethereum without censorship concern, and entering permissionless mode whenever sequencer or proposer goes down.
Base announced it has reached Stage 1 rollup with the launch of permissionless fault proofs and decentralising upgrades via 10 independent Security Councils.
TON partnered with LibreCapital to launch a $500 million Telegram Bond Fund (TBF), containing tokenised Telegram-issued bonds for institutional and accredited investors.
Stacks announced that Stacks Asia Foundation joined Abu Dhabi Global Market and operates within the Distributed Ledger Technology (DLT) Foundations framework. This increases the protocol footprint in the Middle East and adds another layer of trust.
xTAO announced merging with Adrianna Ventures to facilitate a listing on TSX Venture Exchange. xTAO's core business is the operation of validator on Bittensor, and raising $10 million for business operations and technology.
Movement confirmed the suspension of its cofounder, Rushi Manche. The protocol is under third party investigation surrounding a market making scandal. Coinbase delisted MOVE on May 1.
Avail introduced Enigma Upgrade, encrypting data availability for rollups.
Ant Financial Services Group announced Jovay Layer 2 blockchain to enhance RWA financing infrastructure. The group also introduced DTVM Stack, a smart contract execution framework that supports multi-language SDKs, EVM-compatible, open source and smart AI toolkit.

Dapps

Aave passed the proposal to list PT-sUSDe from and PT-eUSDe from Ethereal on Aave V3 core instance.
Jupiter introduced Ultra v2, an upgrade to its swap engine with better swap experience with Real-Time Slippage Estimation v2 and Juno for optimised liquidity, dynamic execution by splitting the trade for the best price, MEV Protect, JupShield for real-time scam detection, gas abstraction and more.
Kamino integrated Chainlink Data Stream into one of its Multi-Price System oracle infrastructure for better accuracy and timely.
Lido v3 is now live on testnet. Lido V3 introduced stVaults, a customised vault solution for configuration such as institution staking that connects to specific Node Operators, leverage strategies, restaking exposure and more.
PancakeSwap Infinity is now live, reducing gas with singleton contract, supporting various pool types and hooks for customised actions.
Filecoin's Fast Finality (F3) is now live, reducing the transaction finality time from approximately 7.5 hours to minutes. This enhancement benefits developers and users by enabling faster and more responsive decentralized applications
1inch, Ethereum leading DEX aggregator, is now live on Solana mainnet.
Spectral, an AI Agent launchpad, launched an AI hedge fund vault on Hyperliquid powered by Agent Spectra. SPEC stakers are entitled to earn 25% of Spectra's withdraws, swap fees and launch rewards.
Ethena onboard USDe to TON network, the stakers of USDe on TON will earn extra rewards up to 10% APY boost.
World (previously Worldcoin) is now available in the US. The team also partnered with Visa to offer a new World Card, enabling users to spend their digital assets via Visa payment network.
Virtuals Protocol launched 2 features following the Genesis Launch. Diamond Hand Bonus, bonus points will be allocated if users hold Genesis tokens. Take Profit Cooldown, taking profit on Genesis tokens will activate a cooldown on points and slowly recover later.
Ondo's USDY is now live on Solana via LayerZero.
Solv Protocol launched Shariah-compliant Bitcoin yield product, aiming to access the Middle East and Islamic markets.

Upcoming Alpha and Governance

Hyperliquid will implement a new fee system on May 5, including staking HYPE to lower trading fees, separating fee schedules for perpetuals and spot, and spot volume counts double toward fee tier. Hyperliquid HIP-3 is now live on testnet, introducing permissionless deployment of perpetual market. The deployers are required to stake 1 million HYPE to prevent malicious market operation, and deployers will receive 50% of the fee generated from the market.
Ethereum is expected to implement the Pectra upgrade on May 7, significantly improving the transactional experience with transaction batching, spending control, gas sponsorship, alternative authentications, recovery mechanics and more.
Conflux passed the proposal to burn 76 million (1.35% of token supply) CFX from Ecosystem Fund and stakes 500 million CFX from Ecosystem Fund to reduce the PoS APR from 18.2% to 13.38%.
Approximately $2.8 billion in TVL and 2% of BERA token will unlock from Berachain's Boyco vaults on May 6.
Soul Protocol, a cross-chain lending aggregator protocol, is launching the SO Token Fair Public Round on May 16. SO token is designed for governance, gauge voting, yield boosting and accrued with buyback mechanism using protocol revenue. Users could deposit collateral on one protocol and borrow from another chain, shift collateral seamlessly, and more.

Token Unlock

JTO token unlocked on May 7, amount representing 3.54% of the token supply.
MOVE token unlocked on May 9, amount representing 2.04% of the token supply.
IO token unlocked on May 11, amount representing 2.00% of the token supply.
APTOS token unlocked on May 12, amount representing 1.83% of the token supply.
IMX token unlocked on May 16, amount representing 1.35% of the token supply.
ARB token unlocked on May 16, amount representing 1.95% of the token supply.
VANA token unlocked on May 16, amount representing 1.47% of the token supply.
APE token unlocked on May 17, amount representing 1.93% of the token supply.
MELANIA token unlocked on May 20, amount representing 5.67% of the token supply.
PLUME token unlocked on May 21, amount representing 5.43% of the token supply.
INIT token unlocked on May 24, amount representing 1.68% of the token supply.

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